A St Totteringham's Day Diary.

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Wed, 11 Feb 2026

Maybe I am wrong...

Last nights game for Spurs was a big one for the Saint: I thought it was Spurs best shot of making the NLD not the decider, bluntly because the Geordies have been poor away from home. How could I underestimate how poor Spurs are this year? I now think I am wrong and the shiny website might be right about 22-February...

	Games	Points	Points behind	(games left)	(max points)	(Points Needed/Date beaten)
Arsenal	25	56
Spurs	26	29	27	(12)	(65)	(10)
West Ham	26	24	32	(12)	(60)	(5)

To get to St Ts we need ten more points, but the head to head game counts double as any points we get counts against Spurs. If we lose it we'd need to find ten points, which is likely to be in March. If we draw we gain one and Spurs drop 2, so we'd need seven more. This is also likely to be in March. We'd need to win, which would be a change of 6 points. Leaving four to get.

Our next few league games:

Thurs 12-Feb   Brentford (A)
Weds  18-Feb   Wolves (A)
Sun   22-Feb   North London Derby at Spurs

If we don't get four points from Brentford and Wolves we have bigger problems with out title challenge to worry about!

If we do get four (or more) points then we have a chance of a double celebration in February this year. Blimey.

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Tue, 10 Feb 2026

What does copilot say...

Having a little bit of fun with MS co-pilot to get it to predict when St Totteringham's will be...

I got it to do 1000 simulations (or so it claimed anyway) and it is inclined to go early:

Date         % of runs   Notes
2026-02-22     41.2%     NLD at Spurs (if Spurs drop points and/or Arsenal extend gap)
2026-03-01     35.9%     After Arsenal v Chelsea / Spurs at Fulham
2026-03-04      9.4%     Midweek (Brighton v Arsenal; Spurs host Palace 5 Mar)
2026-03-05      7.1%     Spurs v Crystal Palace date
2026-03-15      5.4%     Weekend (Arsenal v Everton; Spurs at Liverpool)
2026-03-22      0.3%     International break round; Spurs v Nottm Forest
2026-04-11      0.4%     Run-in resumes (both play)
2026-04-18      0.3%     Arsenal at Man City / Spurs v Brighton

It reckons we have a 90% chance to have a record this year, with the median being March 1.

In it's copious explanations it explains why it is so early:

The starting gap is enormous (27 points). Even with generous modelling 
for Spurs, they rarely sustain the ~2.1 PPG required to reach Arsenal's 
existing 56 points, let alone Arsenal adding more points. [espn.com]

Immediate fixtures tilt the probabilities further:

Arsenal are favored at Brentford on Thu 12 Feb (56.7% win; only 19.1% 
chance the Bees win). A positive result here pushes St T forward. 
[espn.co.uk]

Spurs have a tricky Newcastle game on Tue 10 Feb (Spurs only 33.2% to 
win), and several difficult March fixtures (Liverpool away, etc.), which 
increases the chance that 22 Feb (the NLD) or early March seals it. 
[goal.com], [espn.com]

Could be...

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Sat, 07 Feb 2026

A good win over Sunderland and United help us out

A good Saturday for Arsenal. Spurs lose, Villa draw and we win comfortably at home.

So the important bit

	Games	Points	Points behind	(games left)	(max points)	(Points Needed/Date beaten)
Arsenal	25	56
Spurs	25	29	27	(13)	(68)	(13)
West Ham	25	23	33	(13)	(62)	(7)
Burnley	25	15	41	(13)	(54)	(7-Feb-26)

Burnley join Wolves as teams we have now beaten in the league and West Ham are the next target. We need at least two rounds of games to catch them, and given the form they are in it could be more.

Spurs seem determined to be dragged into the quagmire just above the bottom three. It is great fun to watch, but they must surely have enough to survive..?

Also a note. There is a newer, shinier site which is great fun but it predicts St Ts as being 22nd February. This would be astounding if it happens. It won't, and it'd smash the record for St Ts if it did. (If it does I'll happily admit I'm wrong here probably on the 23rd.) My money is on early to mid March, which would still be very early. (I also think they've borrowed some of my calculations, if so a credit would be appreciated!)

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Sat, 31 Jan 2026

A good win at Leeds

Leeds have never been a favourite of mine, so I enjoyed today's comfortable win quite a bit. Hopefully Saka will recover quickly, but well played to the team: we didn't miss him today.

Ahead of Spurs game tomorrow (when for once a win might be acceptable to me!) the key info is...

	Games	Points	Points behind	(games left)	(max points)	(Points Needed/Date beaten)
Arsenal	24	53
Spurs	23	28	25	(15)	(73)	(21)
Burnley	23	15	38	(15)	(60)	(8)
Wolves	24	8	45	(14)	(50)	(31-Jan-26)

Looks like I made an error in my last post, and gifted Spurs an extra point. We now need seven Arsenal wins, or seven Spurs defeats.

I also point out we have finally guaranteed that we will finish above Wolves this season. Burnley will be next in our targets! We need three results here, so it could be fairly soon. Oddly both Burnley and our next league game is Sunderland.

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Thu, 22 Jan 2026

Happy January and Welcome Back

Slightly earlier than last year I have dusted off the blog and got the diary ready. There are two obvious reasons:

1. Arsenal are playing good stuff and are top of the league

2. Tottenham are a steaming pile of Hotspur. (Thanks to Red Dwarf for that line)

The key information

	Games	Points	Points behind	(games left)	(max points)	(Points Needed)
Arsenal	22	50
Spurs	22	29	21	(16)	(77)	(28)
Wolves	22	8	42	(16)	(56)	(7)

We need another 28 points from our last 16 games to finish ahead of Spurs. I include Wolves to point out that at the moment even they can theoretically finish above us. When we start ticking clubs off the list I'll update the blog. Looking at Wolves we need 7 points, so it should be fairly soon now, although possibly we will need to do it ourselves given Wolves recent recovery.

Fingers crossed for a good performance this weekend.

Stats Update: I've tidied up most of the analysis section on the history page, including putting a date in each section for when it was updated and valid. I've also updated nearly all of it.

Boring update: I've disabled all the analytics on this site, so there shouldn't be any cookies/tracking.

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