St Totteringham's Day
   


A St Totteringham's Day Diary.

More Info

  • List of every St Totteringham's since the first on 22nd April 1911.
  • Old home page, including detail on 2003/4 to 2010/11
  • The story of St T's day and some acknowledgements
  • Some analysis of the history of St Totteringham's
  • home page

    Recent Seasons

  • 2025/6
  • 2024/5
  • 2023/4
  • 2022/3
  • 2020/21
  • 2019/20
  • 2018/9
  • 2017/8
  • 2016/7
  • 2015/6
  • 2014/5
  • 2013/4
  • 2012/3
  • 2011/2
  • 2010/11
  • 2009/10
  • 2008/9
  • 2007/8
  • 2006/7
  • 2005/6
  • 2004/5
  • 2003/4

    Links
    I should probably add some.

    An RSS feed...
    This is an RSS feed of changes to this page so you can watch it in your favourite blog reader.

    The blame
    Mostly written by Mike Pitt. You can contact me by email on mike-stt@einval.com. Nice comments only please.
    Original material © Mike Pitt 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026


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    		•        
    St Totteringham's Day was the day when Arsenal fans celebrate the fact that Tottenham can no longer catch Arsenal in the League. It is a movable feast, but usually falls in March, April or May. It was the day to collect on bets made by over-optimistic Spurs fans in the close season who think that "this is the year".

    See the links on the left for more information.

    Tue, 10 Feb 2026

    What does copilot say...

    Having a little bit of fun with MS co-pilot to get it to predict when St Totteringham's will be...

    I got it to do 1000 simulations (or so it claimed anyway) and it is inclined to go early: 

    Date         % of runs   Notes
2026-02-22     41.2%     NLD at Spurs (if Spurs drop points and/or Arsenal extend gap)
2026-03-01     35.9%     After Arsenal v Chelsea / Spurs at Fulham
2026-03-04      9.4%     Midweek (Brighton v Arsenal; Spurs host Palace 5 Mar)
2026-03-05      7.1%     Spurs v Crystal Palace date
2026-03-15      5.4%     Weekend (Arsenal v Everton; Spurs at Liverpool)
2026-03-22      0.3%     International break round; Spurs v Nottm Forest
2026-04-11      0.4%     Run-in resumes (both play)
2026-04-18      0.3%     Arsenal at Man City / Spurs v Brighton

    It reckons we have a 90% chance to have a record this year, with the median being March 1.

    In it's copious explanations it explains why it is so early: 

    The starting gap is enormous (27 points). Even with generous modelling 
for Spurs, they rarely sustain the ~2.1 PPG required to reach Arsenal's 
existing 56 points, let alone Arsenal adding more points. [espn.com]

Immediate fixtures tilt the probabilities further:

Arsenal are favored at Brentford on Thu 12 Feb (56.7% win; only 19.1% 
chance the Bees win). A positive result here pushes St T forward. 
[espn.co.uk]

Spurs have a tricky Newcastle game on Tue 10 Feb (Spurs only 33.2% to 
win), and several difficult March fixtures (Liverpool away, etc.), which 
increases the chance that 22 Feb (the NLD) or early March seals it. 
[goal.com], [espn.com]

    Could be...

    [/season25-26] permanent link