A St Totteringham's Day Diary.

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Sun, 01 Mar 2026

Happy St Totteringham's Day 2026

We have a new record: 1st March 2026.

Thanks to Fulham's efforts this afternoon we can now celebrate the earliest ever date for St Totteringham's day.

The last record date was 9th March 2008.

This is the ninth March St Ts: 1935, 1959, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2008 were the first eight.

This is equalling the lowest number of games in a 38 game season of 28 Arsenal games with 13th March 2004 (a season where we went on to win the league at WHL.)

Happy St Ts to all Gooners!

I'll update the stats section at some point soon!

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Don't count chickens yet...

Richarlison gets one of the three... but Spurs need two more to make the Chelsea game count for St Ts.

Fulham 2 (H. Wilson 7, A. Iwobi 34) Spurs 1 (Richarlison 66)

Arsenal P28 61pts
Spurs   P28 29pts -- max points would be 59

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Half time

Spurs need three goals in 45 minutes to avoid a record breaking St Totteringham's day.

Fulham 2 (H. Wilson 7, A. Iwobi 34) Spurs 0

Arsenal P28 61pts
Spurs   P28 29pts -- max points would be 59

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Once a Gunner always a Gunner...

Alex Iwobi (who else) scores a second. And it sounds like Spurs don't want to score...

Fulham 2 (H. Wilson 7, A. Iwobi 34) Spurs 0

Arsenal P28 61pts
Spurs   P28 29pts -- max points would be 59

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Looking good...

Fulham take an early lead against Spurs.

Fulham 2 (H. Wilson 7) Spurs 0

Arsenal P28 61pts
Spurs   P28 29pts -- max points would be 59

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It could be today..?

A reminder that...

• If Spurs draw or lose at Fulham or
• Arsenal win against Chelsea, then

This has come to the notice of the BBC who have a nice article about it. It points out we could be on for a record gap between the clubs come May too.

Fingers crossed for a good result at the Cottage.

PS a win today also means we beat Leeds Utd this season due to yesterday's loss to City.

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Mon, 23 Feb 2026

End of February update

Due to Wolves and Brentford, St Totteringham's didn't happen on Sunday, but there is still a good chance of a record year.

	Games	Points	Points behind	(games left)	(max points)	(Points Needed/Date beaten)
Arsenal	28	61
Spurs	27	29	32	(11)	(62)	(2)
Forest	27	27	34	(11)	(60)	22nd February
West Ham	27	25	36	(11)	(58)	22nd February

I didn't do an update after the disappointments of last week, apologies.

So when might St Ts be? The next few games are...

Mar 1st        Arsenal  v Chelsea             Fulham v Spurs
Mar 4th        Brighton v Arsenal
Mar 5th                                       Spurs v Palace
Mar 9th           Current record for earliest St Ts (2008)

Don't want to count chickens but it looks quite possible that a new record may be set this year.

In other news both West Ham and Forest joined Burnley and Wolves in can't catch us territory on Sunday. Spurs will be next, and Leeds are the next in our targets.

By the way I take no pleasure in being right.

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North London is Red...

... but it ain't St Totteringhams yet.

Wolves and Brentford stole our chance of a February St Ts and also gave our slack at the top of the table a bit of a bash, but top of the table is a good place to be.

Full update later today: short version 2 more points. Arsenal win, Spurs lose or draw.

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Wed, 11 Feb 2026

Maybe I am wrong...

Last nights game for Spurs was a big one for the Saint: I thought it was Spurs best shot of making the NLD not the decider, bluntly because the Geordies have been poor away from home. How could I underestimate how poor Spurs are this year? I now think I am wrong and the shiny website might be right about 22-February...

	Games	Points	Points behind	(games left)	(max points)	(Points Needed/Date beaten)
Arsenal	25	56
Spurs	26	29	27	(12)	(65)	(10)
West Ham	26	24	32	(12)	(60)	(5)

To get to St Ts we need ten more points, but the head to head game counts double as any points we get counts against Spurs. If we lose it we'd need to find ten points, which is likely to be in March. If we draw we gain one and Spurs drop 2, so we'd need seven more. This is also likely to be in March. We'd need to win, which would be a change of 6 points. Leaving four to get.

Our next few league games:

Thurs 12-Feb   Brentford (A)
Weds  18-Feb   Wolves (A)
Sun   22-Feb   North London Derby at Spurs

If we don't get four points from Brentford and Wolves we have bigger problems with out title challenge to worry about!

If we do get four (or more) points then we have a chance of a double celebration in February this year. Blimey.

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Tue, 10 Feb 2026

What does copilot say...

Having a little bit of fun with MS co-pilot to get it to predict when St Totteringham's will be...

I got it to do 1000 simulations (or so it claimed anyway) and it is inclined to go early:

Date         % of runs   Notes
2026-02-22     41.2%     NLD at Spurs (if Spurs drop points and/or Arsenal extend gap)
2026-03-01     35.9%     After Arsenal v Chelsea / Spurs at Fulham
2026-03-04      9.4%     Midweek (Brighton v Arsenal; Spurs host Palace 5 Mar)
2026-03-05      7.1%     Spurs v Crystal Palace date
2026-03-15      5.4%     Weekend (Arsenal v Everton; Spurs at Liverpool)
2026-03-22      0.3%     International break round; Spurs v Nottm Forest
2026-04-11      0.4%     Run-in resumes (both play)
2026-04-18      0.3%     Arsenal at Man City / Spurs v Brighton

It reckons we have a 90% chance to have a record this year, with the median being March 1.

In it's copious explanations it explains why it is so early:

The starting gap is enormous (27 points). Even with generous modelling 
for Spurs, they rarely sustain the ~2.1 PPG required to reach Arsenal's 
existing 56 points, let alone Arsenal adding more points. [espn.com]

Immediate fixtures tilt the probabilities further:

Arsenal are favored at Brentford on Thu 12 Feb (56.7% win; only 19.1% 
chance the Bees win). A positive result here pushes St T forward. 
[espn.co.uk]

Spurs have a tricky Newcastle game on Tue 10 Feb (Spurs only 33.2% to 
win), and several difficult March fixtures (Liverpool away, etc.), which 
increases the chance that 22 Feb (the NLD) or early March seals it. 
[goal.com], [espn.com]

Could be...

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