|St Totteringham's Day|
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St Totteringham's Day was the day when Arsenal fans celebrate the fact that Tottenham can no longer catch Arsenal in the League. It is a movable feast, but usually falls in March, April or May. It was the day to collect on bets made by over-optimistic Spurs fans in the close season who think that "this is the year".
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Mon, 09 May 2016
Will St Totteringham come back from the dead?
Using the odds available at Betfair as a source to calculate probabilities I thought I'd see what the chance of St Totteringham's happening was reckoned to be.
So a reminder as we are two points behind with an inferior goal difference we need to Win at home, whilst Newcastle United beat Spurs.
My calculation using the odds at about 7pm today was that we have an 83% chance of doing our bit, and Necastle have a 31% chance of doing their job. That gives an overall chance of just over 25%. That is equivalent to flipping two coins and both coming down heads.
Problem is those odds might change if Sunderland win against Everton. This is currently rated at 56%, and such a win would relegate both Newcastle and Norwich. I would have thought that would make Newcastle winning less likely! I'll check the odds after the midweek games.
The worst outcome is Arsenal win and Spurs draw, or Arsenal lose and Spurs draw. In those cases we will finish behind Spurs on goal difference. At the moment that is rated at about a 27% probability: more likely than St Totteringham's day.
Given the huge lead Spurs had a few weeks ago the fact we are rated at over 50% to have as many points as them shows that they have (as usual) collapsed at the end of the season. The problem is we collapsed earlier!
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