A St Totteringham's Day Diary.
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Mostly written by Mike Pitt. You can contact me by email on mike-stt@einval.com. Nice
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St Totteringham's Day was the day when Arsenal fans celebrate the fact that Tottenham can no longer catch Arsenal in the League. It is a movable feast, but usually falls in March, April or May. It was the day to collect on bets made by over-optimistic Spurs fans in the close season who think that "this is the year".
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Wed, 09 Apr 2014
A quick look at the run in...
I am not going to comment on Arsenal's record against teams in the top 5
this season.
The run in is definitely upon us, and with five games to play we are five points ahead of Spurs. This means Spurs need to get a point a game on us, or to put it anotherway 2 wins when we lose, or a win when we lose and win when we draw, or 3 wins when we draw. Thats a big ask over five games.
Another (simpler!) way to put it is to say we need 11 points from five games: four wins will see us safe, as would three wins and two draws.
There are of course complications if Spurs drop points. I've also added Everton to the analysis for the infamous fourth place trophy...
| Date | Arsenal | Spurs | Everton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 12 April | West Bromwich Albion (A) | Sunderland (A) | |
| Tue 15 April | West Ham Utd (H) | ||
| Wed 16 April | Crystal Palace (H) | ||
| Sat 19 April | Hull City (A) | Fulham (H) | |
| Sun 20 April | Manchester United (H) | ||
| Sat 26 April | Stoke City (A) | Southampton (A) | |
| Mon 28 April | Newcastle Utd (H) | ||
| Sat 3 May | West Ham United (A) | Manchester City (H) | |
| Sun 4 May | West Bromwich Albion (H) | ||
| Sat 11 May | Norwich City (A) | Aston Villa (H) | Hull City (A) |
| Key (position 9/4/14) |
|---|
| top 4 |
| Over 50 points |
| 40-49 points |
| 30-39 points |
| relegation zone |
To me there is little to chose between Spurs and Arsenal's games. Most of them are against teams in the 30-something point scrap. They all need a few more points to make themselves safe.
The Stoke and Newcastle matches look tricky. As could be both the West Ham games. Only Fulham stand out, and a team fighting for survival can spring shocks. Don't think they will though.
So matching up the games: we both play West Ham and West Brom. We play Newcastle when they play Stoke. Hull and Villa are next to each other in the table. Norwich are the club immediately above the drop and go with Fulham.
Nothing between them. It will be down to form, and frankly both teams are capable of messing up.
Fantasy time: the earliest date would be 19 April if we beat the Hammers and Hull, and Spurs lose to the Baggies and Fulham. Seems unlikely!
I put Everton in as well for the 4th place trophy. It doesn't look good. On paper we have a MUCH easier run in, but they are on form and we aren't. If the title race is still alive on May 3 then I can't see City losing, but if it is over then City will drop and Everton might do it.
My gut prediction is that we won't hang on to 4th: based on us picking up 12 points, Spurs 10, and Everton 13. It'd be down to goal difference if I am right.
But I am confident St T's will be earlier this year than last!