St Totteringham's Day

A St Totteringham's Day Diary.

More Info

  • List of every St Totteringham's since the first on 22nd April 1911.
  • Old home page, including detail on 2003/4 to 2010/11
  • The story of St T's day and some acknowledgements
  • Some analysis of the history of St Totteringham's
  • home page

    Recent Seasons

  • 2016/7
  • 2015/6
  • 2014/5
  • 2013/4
  • 2012/3
  • 2011/2
  • 2010/11
  • 2009/10
  • 2008/9
  • 2007/8
  • 2006/7
  • 2005/6
  • 2004/5
  • 2003/4

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    The blame
    Mostly written by Mike Pitt. You can contact me by email on Nice comments only please.
    Original material © Mike Pitt 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

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    St Totteringham's Day is the day when Arsenal fans celebrate the fact that Tottenham can no longer catch Arsenal in the League. It is a movable feast, but usually falls in March, April or May. It is the day to collect on bets made by over-optimistic Spurs fans in the close season who think that "this is the year".

    See the links on the left for more information.

    Sat, 24 Sep 2016

    Well... I didn't see that one coming.

    Writing at half-time we lead 3-0. I won't post this until full time mind you, but a great first half.

    Now, six games is way too early to draw any conclusions, but...

    The opening six games for Spurs has seen them unbeaten:

    • Two draws against teams in the top six (Everton and Liverpool)
    • Four wins against Sunderland (bottom), Stoke City (second bottom), Middlesborough (15th) and Palace (ok, they are doing well in 7th...)
    Meanwhile we have...
    • Lost to Liverpool.
    • Drawn with Leicester. I think this will look like a bad result this season. I could be wrong.
    • Four wins against Hull (12th), Watford (10th), Chelsea (8th) and Southampton (surprisingly low).

    So what conclusions can we draw after six games when we are 1 point apart?

    • That there are 32 games to go,
    • Spurs unbeaten status faces much tougher tests,
    • The only match we have in common (Liverpool at home) saw Spurs do better, and
    • Clearly both teams are in the hunt for the top four again.

    To be honest I don't think this post does much other than say "I'm still here!"...

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    Thu, 04 Aug 2016

    Well the close season is nearly over...

    And I still haven't updated the analysis section of the history page.

    I have however created the link for the new season. It's over there in the links section. Doesn't link to much yet!

    I also promised (by way of thanks for pointing out an error) that I'd share this image c/o Mr Alex Jones. Enjoy:

    Wembley Wanderers FC Enjoy.

    In other news: I can be found on twitter @stottsday for pointless updates during games and links back here. Oh and the usual rubbish one gets on twitter.

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    Sun, 15 May 2016

    It is St Totteringham's Day 2016

    Twenty one years: forever in our shadow

      Arsenal             4   Aston Villa       0
      Newcastle United    5   Tottenham Hotspur 1

    The final table has Arenal a point ahead of Spurs.

     2   Arsenal       38  +29   71
     3   Spurs         38  +34   70

    Happy St Totteringham's Day 2016. It was a slog, and I think we all had our doubts, but how could we underestimate Spurs ability to self destruct?

    Off to have a quiet sit down now: Come back tomorrow for more details!

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    With 2 minutes to go: The Saint is not only back he's dancing!

           Arsenal          3           Aston Villa       0
           Newcastle United 5 (FIVE)    Tottenham Hotspur 1
    Laughing and dancing now. Possibly eating lasagne too!

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    With 12 minutes to go: THE SAINT IS BACK FROM THE DEAD.

           Arsenal          3           Aston Villa       0
           Newcastle United 3           Tottenham Hotspur 1

    Bit stressed!

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    Half time: so far, so unbelievable

        Half time scores:  
           Arsenal          1           Aston Villa       0
           Newcastle United 2           Tottenham Hotspur 0

    I wrote this season off months ago. To the extent that on twitter I happily took the good natured mild abuse of some Spurs fans. It was their turn, they deserved a bit of revenge...

    But at half time the mindless optimism I suggested a few weeks ago is still on track. We could still have St Totteringhams 2016 despite... well everything.


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    Mon, 09 May 2016

    Will St Totteringham come back from the dead?

    So we go into the final weekend with the fate of St Totteringham undecided for the year. The draw at City means we are almost assured of a top four finish, but was short of what we really wanted for a strong chance of catching Spurs.

    Using the odds available at Betfair as a source to calculate probabilities I thought I'd see what the chance of St Totteringham's happening was reckoned to be.

    So a reminder as we are two points behind with an inferior goal difference we need to Win at home, whilst Newcastle United beat Spurs.

    My calculation using the odds at about 7pm today was that we have an 83% chance of doing our bit, and Necastle have a 31% chance of doing their job. That gives an overall chance of just over 25%. That is equivalent to flipping two coins and both coming down heads.

    Problem is those odds might change if Sunderland win against Everton. This is currently rated at 56%, and such a win would relegate both Newcastle and Norwich. I would have thought that would make Newcastle winning less likely! I'll check the odds after the midweek games.

    The worst outcome is Arsenal win and Spurs draw, or Arsenal lose and Spurs draw. In those cases we will finish behind Spurs on goal difference. At the moment that is rated at about a 27% probability: more likely than St Totteringham's day.

    Given the huge lead Spurs had a few weeks ago the fact we are rated at over 50% to have as many points as them shows that they have (as usual) collapsed at the end of the season. The problem is we collapsed earlier!

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    Sun, 08 May 2016

    Mindless optimism seems to be working ok so far...

    Well I never. Southampton come from 1-0 down to beat Spurs at WHL. Thanks lads!

    So what does that mean. We are three points behind Spurs and have the game against City today. The options are:

    • We win today: We go level on points but way behind on goal difference. Barring a ridiculous result (13 or 14 nil) for a last day St Totteringham we will just need to do better than Spurs. So Spurs win at Newcastle it's over. They draw, we need to win. They lose, a draw will suffice.
    • We draw today: We will be 2 points behind. So we will need to win on the final day and Spurs to lose. A draw for Spurs would require a record Arsenal win.
    • We lose today: Forget it. A record win required and a Spurs loss.

    If things go well I'll post an update at about 6pm... Come on you Gunners!

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    Tue, 03 May 2016


    So Chelsea managed a draw. Congratulations to Leicester City on winning the most unexpected title since Cloughy won it.

    Anyway this means with both Arsenal and Spurs having two games left we can still have a St T's.

    Spurs are three points ahead. If they win either of the remaining games then (barring Arsenal winning two matches 15-0 odd) we can't catch them. We need draws or defeats against Southampton and Newcastle, and Arsenal wins against City and Villa.

    Not impossible but still a long shot.

    Of course if the FA take Spurs behaviour last night seriously (like they took the United v Arsenal brawl back in 1991 seriously) then it might help...

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    Sun, 01 May 2016

    What we need now is some blind optimism.

    So we are in May and Spurs are still ahead. This is a testing time for those who look forward to St Totteringham's day each year, but we aren't quite dead yet.

    I've decided to be mindlessly optimistic and look at how we might still do it. I'll leave as an exercise to the reader how likely this is!

    Spurs hangover

    First match up is Chelsea v Spurs. Following a Leicester win at Old Trafford today the team is delfated and doesn't compete as well as it can. Chelsea are well up for a morale boosting win and the Chelsea fans will be able to spend the Summer claiming it was just the first half of the season and they'll be back. Spurs two points ahead with two to go each.

    Southampton bore fest

    The Saints have a tight defence and manage to hold Spurs in a dull 0-0 draw. Spurs move three points clear and have one to go.

    Third place decider goes to Arsenal

    Oddy the Manchester City game is the one I think might show Arsenal playing well. The lethargy we've seen in recent matches is brushed aside in an attempt to secure Champions League football by finishing above City. It's tight but late goals give us a win that appears more comfortable than it really was. We move level on points, but behind on goal difference.

    Final day Lasagne

    Whether Spurs make the mistake of eating Lasagne before the final day or not they are surprised by a strong Newcastle performance. The Geordies manage to scrape a point and stay up. Meanwhile Arsenal play out a dull 2-0 win at the Emirates against a poor Villa team. The result is we finish second and the media praise Wenger beyond all reason and criticise the fans who have paid for the drivel we've seen this season.

    So we could have St Totteringham's on May 15th!

    But... while each bit is possible, perhaps even plausible, I'm not putting any money on it!

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