St Totteringham's Day
   


A St Totteringham's Day Diary.

More Info

  • List of every St Totteringham's since the first on 22nd April 1911.
  • Old home page, including detail on 2003/4 to 2010/11
  • The story of St T's day and some acknowledgements
  • Some analysis of the history of St Totteringham's
  • home page

    Recent Seasons

  • 2017/8
  • 2016/7
  • 2015/6
  • 2014/5
  • 2013/4
  • 2012/3
  • 2011/2
  • 2010/11
  • 2009/10
  • 2008/9
  • 2007/8
  • 2006/7
  • 2005/6
  • 2004/5
  • 2003/4

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    I should probably add some.

    An RSS feed...
    This is an RSS feed of changes to this page so you can watch it in your favourite blog reader.

    The blame
    Mostly written by Mike Pitt. You can contact me by email on mike-stt@einval.com. Nice comments only please. I'm also @sttottsday on twitter.
    Original material © Mike Pitt 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018


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    St Totteringham's Day is the day when Arsenal fans celebrate the fact that Tottenham can no longer catch Arsenal in the League. It is a movable feast, but usually falls in March, April or May. It is the day to collect on bets made by over-optimistic Spurs fans in the close season who think that "this is the year".

    See the links on the left for more information.

    Tue, 17 Apr 2018

    It could be tonight...

    After Arsenal's loss at Newcastle the situation has moved on a little.

    If Spurs win tonight at Brighton then that's it, Spurs finish above us two years in a row. To be honest given the respective form I'd be surprised if this didn't happen.

    However, if it is a draw or loss then it moves onto the weekend. Arsenal will need to do better at home to West Ham than Spurs did at Brighton to keep it alive. That is to say if Spurs draw we must win, if they lose a draw would keep it alive until our journey to Old Trafford on the 29th.

    If Spurs lose tonight and we draw on Sunday then I'll need to point to the thing about goal difference not being enough that I wrote before the weekend! Arsenal would be on 55 with four to play, which would allow them to match Spurs' current 67. They'd need another point to be certain.

    To add to the glee of Spurs fans I'm going to admit that we are now in a foot race with Burnley for 6th and we may not even get Europa League football next year. The match on May 6th is looking very big.

    Burnley have a tough fixture on Thursday (Chelsea (h)), but winnable on those two teams current form. Ignoring that and the match against us, they have three other games and I think they could easily get all nine points (Stoke (H), Brighton (A), Bournemouth (H)).

    On the other hand we have three away games: Manchested United and Leicester have to be favourites to win those two, but surely we will win at Huddersfield on the last day. I think we'll beat West Ham though.

    So predictions going into May 6:

    • Arsenal beat West Ham and lose at Old Trafford. That means we have 57 points.
    • Burnley will win 2 out of 3 (Chelsea, Stoke, Brighton) putting them on 58
    • Arsenal would have two away games left, and Burnley one home one at that point.
    It looks like it could be "interesting".

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    Thu, 12 Apr 2018

    Could be the anti-Saint's day this weekend

    While it is unlikely it is possible that this weekend could mark the second successive failure of Arsenal to finish ahead of that lot from down the road. So to be fair I thought I ought to quickly run through possible events ahead of the weekend.

    At the moment Spurs have 67 points and Arsenal have 54. They both have six to play. So the gap is 13 points and Arsenal can get 18 points. To be mathematically certain Spurs need to get 6 points, or for Arsenal to drop six points or some combination that adds to six. This can happen in one weekend. However, please note a five point swing is simply not certain. The goal difference is worth a point to Spurs but only at the end of the season; also note if it comes into play they'd have lost five matches, and Arsenal won five. That means a minumum GD swing of 10 (which is admittedly only half the required change, but thats the minimum.)

    I'll say again: it won't come to that, it's about when not if now.

    So what can happen:

    • Worst case in footballing terms: Spurs beat City, and we lose in a lunchtime kick off to Newcastle the next day. Both are certainly possible, we are rubbish at early KOs and away from home, and City are fragile at the moment.
    • Worst case mathematically: Spurs beat City and we draw at Newcastle. Then I'll be on twitter trying to explain what I wrote above. The Saint won't be quite dead for the year but he won't be hanging around long.
    • Anything else: The Saint is on life support for another week or two. I'll post after the weekend with an update.

    So Spurs fans almost time to collect on those bets. Unless Harry Kane claims them all...

    Update: In other cheery news today is the anniversary of Arsenal's only relegation back in 1913, down with three games to spare and only 16 points from 36 (19 if 3 for a win which is still pretty grim!).

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    Fri, 16 Mar 2018

    A second inglorious year

    This post is really for Spurs fans. Arsenal fans look away now.

    It's not good.

    Anyway the table looks a bit like this (as of today):

    Tottenham P30   61pts +34GD
    Arsenal    30   48    +14
    
    So we are currently 13 points behind with 8 to play. We can max out on 48+(3x8)=72 points so Spurs need another 12 to be sure (given the goal difference 11 is probably enough, however if they only get 11 from 8 games the GD will change too). Alternatively Arsenal losing is worth 3 points, and drawing is worth 2 to Spurs, as that is what it reduces are maximum total by.

    Trying to predict a date for the dreadful day is made trickier by Arsenal's rampant unpredictability this season.

    Looking the April fixtures Arsenal should beat Stoke, Southampton and West Ham at home, but away trips to Newcastle and Manchester United look dodgy. I think we might drop some points.

    Spurs on the other hand should beat Stoke and Brighton away, but I have no idea about the match at Chelsea. Lets call that a draw. I think on current form City will win at Wembley.

    Putting that together I think after the match at Brighton Spurs will have 68 points, and Arsenal may be looking at a 69 point maximum at that stage. So the anti-St-T's will be on the 23rd if West Ham get a point, or the 29th if Manchester United remember to score a goal, or the 30th if Spurs beat Watford.

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    Sat, 13 Jan 2018

    Gaps between league titles? Is 14 years too much for one man?

    Not looking good at the moment, so I'll talk about history.

    I think most Arsenal fans know the significance of the number 18 when it comes to gaps between our league titles. 18 years is the longest gap between titles since we first won it back in 1931. It has happened twice, either side of the Bertie Mee 1971 double team.

    However these gaps usually had several managers (in the 1953-1971 we had Whittaker, Crayston, Swindin, Wright and Mee; in the second gap Mee, Neill, Howe, and Graham (and Burtenshaw as caretaker)). So I thought which managers have had the longest dry runs in the league for Arsenal.

    Ignoring caretakers and those who had under three seasons...

    Manager		Seasons		Then what?			Years without a title
    Neill		1976-1983	left job in 7th season		7
    Chapman		1925-1931	won in sixth season		6
    Bradshaw	1899-1904	left job in fifth season	5
    Whittaker	1948-1953	Won in 5th season		5
    Mee		1966-1971	Won in 5th season		5
    		1971-1976	left job after 5th season	5
    Kelso		1904-1908	left job in 4th season		4
    Swindin		1958-1962	left job in 4th season		4
    Wright		1962-1966	left job after 4th season	4
    Graham		1991-1995	left job in 4th season		4
    Allison		1938-1947	Left job after three seasons	3
    Howe		1983-1986	left job in third season	3
    

    Of course one person is missing. If Wenger doesn't win the league this season (and noone thinks he will) then it'll be 14 years. Surely this is indulging him to excess if we are still a club which starts with the ambition of winning the league?

    A small footnote: 1938-1947 only covered three full seasons. 1938/9, 1945/6 and 1946/7.

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    Wed, 29 Nov 2017

    Well, fancy that...

    Despite my early season pessimism things are suddenly and unexpectedly looking rosier!

    After 11 games we were behind Spurs, but had battled well to stay in touch with what we were assured was a superb Tottenham team. I was thrilled by a superb North London Derby that left us just 1 point behind. Since when Spurs have continued to implode and we've been thoroughly professional: Grinding out a rather grim 1-0 at Burnley and thumping poor Huddersfield tonight. (Sorry Huddersfield fans!)

    The net result is that we are 4th and Spurs are 7th. Four points down.

    Permit me to enjoy that.

    Power shift in North London? No sign of it.

    Anyway the key bit of the table is...

    4. Arsenal     P14 28pts +12
    5. Liverpool   P14 26pts +10
    6. Burnley     P14 25pts +3
    7. Spurs       P14 24pts +10
    

    Burnley are impressive this season. I'll also remind people Spurs still have to play City twice. However a long way to go, and a four point gap can, as Spurs just demonstrated, be reversed in 4 games!

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    Mon, 28 Aug 2017

    Welcome to the new season!

    So...

    The losses to Liverpool and Stoke were hardly suprises, but do rather confirm that this is going to be another groundhog season. I was hoping to be able to start this year with an optimistic post, but none of the opening league results justified that.

    Anyway here is the start of the year placeholder. Will the Saint be returning thanks to Spurs' Wembley hoodoo, or will it be a year of wailing and gnashing of teeth?

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    Sun, 30 Apr 2017

    Well...

    I knew it would happen eventually. Fair play to Spurs, but the lack of passion and organisation from Arsenal was predictaly bad.

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    Sat, 29 Apr 2017

    Tomorrow evening...

    Well I think we all know the situation but just to get it down here before the game...

    Before the match Arsenal have six games left and we are 14 points behind. There are three results

    • If Arsenal win then we reduce the gap to 11 points with 15 points left to play for. Also I will laugh. Spurs will still finish above us, but it will reduce the pain a little.
    • If we draw then the gap stays at 14 with 15 to go. Not the best result for either team but at least we avoid the anti-St-Totteringham happening at WHL. Right now I'd take this if offered.
    • Finally the third option. If that happens we will be unable to catch Spurs.

    Some straws to clutch at for Arsenal fans: Spurs will be celebrating finishing second, like we did last season. 21 years. We have an FA Cup final. Next year Spurs will be at Wembley.

    And finally remember: Arsenal have finished above Spurs 66 times since Spurs joined the league wheras Spurs have finished above us only 30. Mind the gap!

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    Mon, 10 Apr 2017

    What was that...

    Writing at half time we are deservedly 1-0 down. It is so bad I am trying to distract myself. My attempt to find a picture to tweet for the Arsenal watching face didn't go well, so I'm doing arithmetic.

    If I'm posting this it didn't get any better. (In fact it got a whole lot worse.)

    Taking the relevant info from the PL table...

              P     Pts   Games left    Max points
    Spurs    31      68
    Arsenal  30      54            8         78
    
    Spurs now need just 11 points. Four wins out of seven, or three if they win the NLD. Which is the third game they play.

    I am wondering if us losing our next two games might be less painful.

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    Sat, 08 Apr 2017



    Well Watford did what I expected them to do at the end of January... Watford capitulated to Spurs. Not a surprise.

    Anyway ahead of our game on Monday I thought I'd update how bad things are looking for the Saint.

    I think he's not very well.

    The raw facts are this: Arsenal can still (in theory) max out on 81 points. This means Spurs need 82 to be mathematically certain. They now have 68 so need just 14 more. That would be five wins out of seven, or four wins and two draws.

    This doesn't give them much room to slip up, but don't forget that assumes we don't slip up either. Worse still the head to head game between at the Lane. If Spurs win that it would leave them needing 8 more points, a draw would require 11 more points.

    It gets worse... the nightmare scenario exists:

    • Assuming Tottenham beat Bournemouth and Palace (which seems likely), they will have 6 points towards the total.
    • They'll need 8 more if Arsenal don't drop any points.
    • Arsenal have three games before the NLD: Palace and Boro away, and Leicester at home.
    • If we draw just one of those games then we have dropped two points. This leads Spurs needing 6 more. One loss would be much the same.
    • Spurs beating Arsenal would be worth those six (three for Spurs and three off our max score)

    Let us hope we can get a mini-run going to avoid this being even theoretically possible. (That Leicester game looks worrying.)

    Of course given Spurs ability to make a mess of anything it is entirely possible that they win the next two, then lose to us and fall apart failing to get 8 points from the last four. We'll call that the comedy gold option!

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