St Totteringham's Day

A St Totteringham's Day Diary.

More Info

  • List of every St Totteringham's since the first on 22nd April 1911.
  • Old home page, including detail on 2003/4 to 2010/11
  • The story of St T's day and some acknowledgements
  • Some analysis of the history of St Totteringham's
  • home page

    Recent Seasons

  • 2016/7
  • 2015/6
  • 2014/5
  • 2013/4
  • 2012/3
  • 2011/2
  • 2010/11
  • 2009/10
  • 2008/9
  • 2007/8
  • 2006/7
  • 2005/6
  • 2004/5
  • 2003/4

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    The blame
    Mostly written by Mike Pitt. You can contact me by email on Nice comments only please.
    Original material © Mike Pitt 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

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    St Totteringham's Day is the day when Arsenal fans celebrate the fact that Tottenham can no longer catch Arsenal in the League. It is a movable feast, but usually falls in March, April or May. It is the day to collect on bets made by over-optimistic Spurs fans in the close season who think that "this is the year".

    See the links on the left for more information.

    Sun, 19 Feb 2017

    FA Cup breather

    Just a quick update to say not a lot. Again.

    With 13 games to go we are level pegging with Spurs on points, and only 2 goals behind on goal difference. At some point I'll need to check the matches left but not yet.

    What provoked the update was a change in my email system: it has revealed a host of emails people sent me three or four years ago that ended up in the wrong place. Probably too long ago to reply now, but thanks for getting in touch and sorry for losing them.

    More usefully both Spurs and Arsenal have 13 matches left. If my maths is right (which given one of the emails it may not be!) that means we can get a maximum of 39 more points and a total of 89. So Chelsea need 30 points to beat us both. That is ten wins so it is not certain yet. Just very, very likely. (I'll also point out that my last post has sadly proved correct in the first prediction. Hopefully the Spurs implosion will follow.)

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    Sun, 05 Feb 2017

    Groundhog season

    Well our season is following the usual path: we appear to be in a title race but crash and burn early. Get humiliated in a big game. The final piece should be losing heavily to Bayern in the first leg, and then heroically falling just short in the second leg.

    Anyway the point of being here is to discuss Arsenal finishing above Spurs. We've reach the stage where Spurs go above us and their fans start to get smug.

    Then come April they will implode if they follow the usual script too.

    At some point however Spurs will stop gifting us that finish. Anyway, it is February and bluntly there is nothing between the teams.

    PS I said drawing with Leicester would be seen as a poor result...

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    Sat, 24 Sep 2016

    Well... I didn't see that one coming.

    Writing at half-time we lead 3-0. I won't post this until full time mind you, but a great first half.

    Now, six games is way too early to draw any conclusions, but...

    The opening six games for Spurs has seen them unbeaten:

    • Two draws against teams in the top six (Everton and Liverpool)
    • Four wins against Sunderland (bottom), Stoke City (second bottom), Middlesborough (15th) and Palace (ok, they are doing well in 7th...)
    Meanwhile we have...
    • Lost to Liverpool.
    • Drawn with Leicester. I think this will look like a bad result this season. I could be wrong.
    • Four wins against Hull (12th), Watford (10th), Chelsea (8th) and Southampton (surprisingly low).

    So what conclusions can we draw after six games when we are 1 point apart?

    • That there are 32 games to go,
    • Spurs unbeaten status faces much tougher tests,
    • The only match we have in common (Liverpool at home) saw Spurs do better, and
    • Clearly both teams are in the hunt for the top four again.

    To be honest I don't think this post does much other than say "I'm still here!"...

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    Thu, 04 Aug 2016

    Well the close season is nearly over...

    And I still haven't updated the analysis section of the history page.

    I have however created the link for the new season. It's over there in the links section. Doesn't link to much yet!

    I also promised (by way of thanks for pointing out an error) that I'd share this image c/o Mr Alex Jones. Enjoy:

    Wembley Wanderers FC Enjoy.

    In other news: I can be found on twitter @stottsday for pointless updates during games and links back here. Oh and the usual rubbish one gets on twitter.

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    Sun, 15 May 2016

    It is St Totteringham's Day 2016

    Twenty one years: forever in our shadow

      Arsenal             4   Aston Villa       0
      Newcastle United    5   Tottenham Hotspur 1

    The final table has Arenal a point ahead of Spurs.

     2   Arsenal       38  +29   71
     3   Spurs         38  +34   70

    Happy St Totteringham's Day 2016. It was a slog, and I think we all had our doubts, but how could we underestimate Spurs ability to self destruct?

    Off to have a quiet sit down now: Come back tomorrow for more details!

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    With 2 minutes to go: The Saint is not only back he's dancing!

           Arsenal          3           Aston Villa       0
           Newcastle United 5 (FIVE)    Tottenham Hotspur 1
    Laughing and dancing now. Possibly eating lasagne too!

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    With 12 minutes to go: THE SAINT IS BACK FROM THE DEAD.

           Arsenal          3           Aston Villa       0
           Newcastle United 3           Tottenham Hotspur 1

    Bit stressed!

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    Half time: so far, so unbelievable

        Half time scores:  
           Arsenal          1           Aston Villa       0
           Newcastle United 2           Tottenham Hotspur 0

    I wrote this season off months ago. To the extent that on twitter I happily took the good natured mild abuse of some Spurs fans. It was their turn, they deserved a bit of revenge...

    But at half time the mindless optimism I suggested a few weeks ago is still on track. We could still have St Totteringhams 2016 despite... well everything.


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    Mon, 09 May 2016

    Will St Totteringham come back from the dead?

    So we go into the final weekend with the fate of St Totteringham undecided for the year. The draw at City means we are almost assured of a top four finish, but was short of what we really wanted for a strong chance of catching Spurs.

    Using the odds available at Betfair as a source to calculate probabilities I thought I'd see what the chance of St Totteringham's happening was reckoned to be.

    So a reminder as we are two points behind with an inferior goal difference we need to Win at home, whilst Newcastle United beat Spurs.

    My calculation using the odds at about 7pm today was that we have an 83% chance of doing our bit, and Necastle have a 31% chance of doing their job. That gives an overall chance of just over 25%. That is equivalent to flipping two coins and both coming down heads.

    Problem is those odds might change if Sunderland win against Everton. This is currently rated at 56%, and such a win would relegate both Newcastle and Norwich. I would have thought that would make Newcastle winning less likely! I'll check the odds after the midweek games.

    The worst outcome is Arsenal win and Spurs draw, or Arsenal lose and Spurs draw. In those cases we will finish behind Spurs on goal difference. At the moment that is rated at about a 27% probability: more likely than St Totteringham's day.

    Given the huge lead Spurs had a few weeks ago the fact we are rated at over 50% to have as many points as them shows that they have (as usual) collapsed at the end of the season. The problem is we collapsed earlier!

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    Sun, 08 May 2016

    Mindless optimism seems to be working ok so far...

    Well I never. Southampton come from 1-0 down to beat Spurs at WHL. Thanks lads!

    So what does that mean. We are three points behind Spurs and have the game against City today. The options are:

    • We win today: We go level on points but way behind on goal difference. Barring a ridiculous result (13 or 14 nil) for a last day St Totteringham we will just need to do better than Spurs. So Spurs win at Newcastle it's over. They draw, we need to win. They lose, a draw will suffice.
    • We draw today: We will be 2 points behind. So we will need to win on the final day and Spurs to lose. A draw for Spurs would require a record Arsenal win.
    • We lose today: Forget it. A record win required and a Spurs loss.

    If things go well I'll post an update at about 6pm... Come on you Gunners!

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