More thoughts on children

diff --git a/Meta/Brainstorming.mdwn b/Meta/Brainstorming.mdwn
index 583656ff31caf644f13bb713db70d3d3cfce1b2e..74f7daf82811c7aca3a68e0731a13bc7a37ed8a6 100644 (file)
--- a/Meta/Brainstorming.mdwn
+++ b/Meta/Brainstorming.mdwn
@@ -87,4 +87,36 @@ So that just about fits in for the 10-days in a season.  Allowing for weather an
 Children
 --------
 
-Approximately [[nine sixteenths|http://www.representingchildhood.pitt.edu/medieval_child.htm]] of live births survived to the age of 10 and in 1250 they had a life expectancy of about 30 more years at that point.  Population was growing at an amazing rate (England was in danger of a Malthusian collapse by the time the Black Death hit a century later) so babies were being live-born at about twice the replacement rate - 1 for every 15 people over the age of 10 each year.  The covenant pays well (positive LCM) so infant mortality will be below average and mostly below the age of 5 (we can ignore kids below that age.  Lets say 25% total infant mortality - actually it's going to work out slightly less than that when we convert to covenant population points), so lets call that 1 for every 20 over 10.  Each Year.  So a full fifth of the covenant population is going to be between 5 and 10 at any point.  Better keep them away from the magi!  Actually it isn't because the LCM factor applies to the adults too - meaning they'll live longer.  As an aside approxinately 1% of pregnancies are twins (but twin births tend to be bad news in medieval times).
+Approximately [[nine
+sixteenths|http://www.representingchildhood.pitt.edu/medieval_child.htm]]
+of live births survived to the age of 10 and in 1250 they had a life
+expectancy of about 30 more years at that point.  Population was
+growing at an amazing rate (England was in danger of a Malthusian
+collapse by the time the Black Death hit a century later) so babies
+were being live-born at about twice the replacement rate - 1 for every
+15 people over the age of 10 each year.  The covenant pays well
+(positive LCM) so infant mortality will be below average and mostly
+below the age of 5 (we can ignore kids below that age.  Lets say 25%
+total infant mortality - actually it's going to work out slightly less
+than that when we convert to covenant population points), so lets call
+that 1 for every 20 over 10.  Each Year.  So a full fifth of the
+covenant population is going to be between 5 and 10 at any point.
+Better keep them away from the magi!  Actually it isn't because the
+LCM factor applies to the adults too - meaning they'll live longer.
+As an aside approxinately 1% of pregnancies are twins (but twin births
+tend to be bad news in medieval times).
+
+Our base poppoint value is two points per normal covenfolk but to
+allow for the number of specialists and the longer life as mentioned
+above lets call that 2½ (we'll come back later when we have actual
+statistics) so that's going to be one kid per 50 population points per
+year.  Before you start drooling over all the potential apprentices
+then note that under the baseline rate of the gift (about 1/10000) we
+can expect one gifted child a millennium or so.  Even if we assume
+that conditions are somehow particularly favourable (they probably
+aren't) that's not going to get better than once a century or so.
+
+Mere Supernatural abilities are going to be more common though -- many
+of them run in families, the covenent is more understanding of
+strangeness, and the kids are spending less of their time in a strong
+Dominion aura than most inhabitants of Mythic Europe.