The Loser Count
The loser count is a way of analysing your hand which, when combined with information about your partner's hand, yields an expectation of the number of tricks you should make in a suit contract.
Counting your losers
Consider the length of and honours held in each suit in turn.
If you hold three or more cards in the suit, then the number of losers is the number of the top three honours (Q/K/A) which you don't hold.
If the suit is a doubleton, then the number of losers is the number of the top two honours (K/A) which you don't hold.
If the suit is a singleton, then it's a winner if it's an Ace, and a loser otherwise.
Here are some examples:
| Holding | Losers |
|---|---|
| AK952 | 1 |
| 8532 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 |
| Q952 | 2 (but see also loser count adjustments) |
Why not three losers in the case of a singleton? Well, we said earlier this applies in a suit contract, so you'll be able to trump it. This brings us to the first, and crucial, adjustment:
When a trump fit is known
Count losers outside of trumps as above. In the trump suit, you get no let-off for shortness; for example, holding a KA doubleton still counts as one loser.
That's the basics. See also loser count adjustments.
How to apply the loser count
When you know something your partner's loser count, you can combine it with your own to determine the number of expected tricks or, equivalently, the maximum level to bid to.
The magic formula is:
Number of tricks = 24 - (Your losers + Partner's losers)
Bidding level = 18 - (Your losers + Partner's losers)
This is usually applied when bidding reveals your partner's worst-case loser count, e.g. 7 losers to open 1 of a suit; you can then safely bid as far as the indicated level in the knowledge both that it should be OK, and that partner will know you've taken them for however many losers and so can raise if they're actually holding fewer.
Expectations: The Revenge
We said above that the loser count is an expectation.
Applying the loser count indicates the likely number of tricks you will take on average, assuming:
- you have a trump fit
- that half your finesses work
- that opponents don't hold a killer split against you
Because of the danger of killer splits, a nine-card trump fit is significantly better than an eight-card fit. Read about the power of the fit and the split in loser count adjustments.
The loser count is not the be-all and the end-all. It is only another way to assess your hand, an augmentation to other methods. In particular, seven losers does not an opening hand make - not unless you've got the traditional thirteen points or very nearly so. Klinger drives this point home, so let's see that again in large type:
THE LOSER COUNT IS NOT THE BE-ALL AND THE END-ALL.
Similarly, when we say we expect 7 losers to open, it's not a hard prescription; consider a hand of A-x-x-x A-x-x A-x-x A-x-x !
- Response at the 1 level (e.g. 1S over 1H) requires 9 losers.
- Response at the 2 level (e.g. 2C over 1H) requires 8 losers; if you have replying strength and 9 losers, consider the 1NT response gadget: "I have something I'd like to say but not at the level I'd have to say it at."
For an alternative way to assess the level at which to reply, see cover cards.