Behind the curve. Very OT for ukcrypto, my apologies, but necessary.

[Roger Hayter]

> On 12 Mar 2020, at 21:53, Peter Fairbrother <zenadsl6186 at zen.co.uk> wrote:
> 
> Please recirculate freely.
> 
> 
> 
> Behind the Curve. The Mathematics of Deaths.
> 
> The present United Kingdom strategy on COVID-19 was to initially try to contain the virus with a weak containment policy, and when that failed to move to the "delay phase" we are in now to try to slow its spread. This delay would place a lower maximum load on healthcare, spread heathcare requirements over time, and thereby allow more per-patient care.
> 
> An underlying assumption and consequential end result of that policy is that practically everybody in the UK will inevitably eventually catch the virus.
> 
> And the Red Death will hold illimitable dominion over all.
> 
> 
> The strategy made sense if, as was believed when it was made, there would be no way of eventually stopping the epidemic by containment, something I myself believed.
> 
> However, that does not seem to be the case: the disease is not quite as infectious as at first thought, as recent evidence shows that the Chinese have managed to slow it almost to a stop using strong confinement.
> 
> If they succeed in containing the disease, as seems very likely, then most Chinese people will never catch the virus - whereas if the present UK policy is continued then at some point a majority of people in the UK will catch the disease, and a million people will die unnecessarily [1].
> 
> 
> 
> So what new policy should be adopted? Well we have the Chinese example to follow. Strong containment is working for the Chinese, it should work for us.
> 
> All people entering the UK should be quarantined. The UK has a "moat" in the seas surrounding it, and should take advantage of that.
> 
> Schools and universities should close. Large public gatherings should be banned.
> 
> People should be encouraged to wear masks, not discouraged - even a tiny difference in transmission rate can be the straw which will make the difference between the epidemic dying out or growing: that is how the chain reaction of an epidemic works. If each infected person infects more than one other person on average then the epidemic spreads, if on average each infected person infects less than one then the epidemic dies out.
> 
> We should be taking extreme measures to get that figure of new infections per case down to less than 1. Testing should be stepped up by at least an order of magnitude. Medical staff should have the power to require testing, and if positive then quarantine should be enforced if necessary.
> 
snip

I don’t pretend to know if you are technically right but, at present at least, without lots of deaths of young people which would be too late anyway, the population wouldn’t cooperate.

Roger Hayter