ID card rollout begins
Ian Batten
ukcrypto at chiark.greenend.org.uk
Fri, 26 Sep 2008 07:47:35 +0100
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>> be involved in) have scrapping the whole ID card programme as a
>> manifesto commitment. The chances of the biometric of anyone bar
>> non-EU citizens being present on documents before the government is
>> voted out are approximately zero, and after Brown is packed off to
>> Scotland never to be heard of again we can assume that ID cards are
>> dead for a generation. We'll probably need to fight the battles
>> again in about 2020.
> This isn't being driven by elected people.
Put the tinfoil hat away, or at least fold it into a nice beret.
This isn't some spooky, hidden change to the legal framework, capable
of being nodded through and requiring no budget, which will upon
enactment be invisible to the population at large. To get anywhere
with ID cards will require an immense budget, primary legislation and
the compliance of most of the UK population in something that will
cost them time, money and aggravation for no benefit. It's not key
escrow, or Phorm, or communications data retention by CPs, all of
which will attract almost no attention, don't require primary
legislation and transfer their costs to the private sector. It's the
Poll Tax, but with no winners.
The abandonment of the scheme has been made a manifesto commitment by
both major opposition parties and, I hear, has almost no support in
the Labour Party at large. Certainly a party stooge who tried to spin
positive on labourhome.org was laughed to scorn, and an obvious way to
shoot the Tory fox of ``we'll fund it out of the ID card scheme
money'' would be for Brown's replacement (*) to scrap the ID card,
point out the money hasn't been spent yet and hole Cameron's budget
below the waterline.
Elements in the civil service have been pushing for ID cards for
generations, to the distaste of many politicians (see, for example,
Peter Lilly's pitch at the LSE lo those many years ago, at which many
of us were present). They found a receptive audience in the more
authoritarian end of the Labour Party (one hesitates to say `tankies',
but one can't help it). That element is now consigned to history,
probably taking its party with it. There's no political will, or in
fact active political opposition, in every credible post-2010
government or element of a government: Tory, LibDem, post-Brown Labour
(think a Purnell government in 2018 would be so stupid?)
In the economic climate of the next decade, no party is going to spend
billions on a scheme whose benefits won't show up at the ballot box
for at least ten years, if ever, and whose lack of definition, scope
and objectives means it's certain to be a failure even if it's
deployed, which it won't be. Yes, there are people in Home Office who
want it. They had their chance, and had they managed to produce a
workable scheme in 2001 they might have managed it, too. But an ID
card scheme would lose Labour seats in urban areas (anywhere with a
large ethnic minority population, anywhere with a large young
population) and rural areas (anywhere that people would need to travel
to register) that they simply can't afford to lose. If it were going
to happen, it would have happened: as there's no general scheme for ID
cards for UK citizens prior to the last possible date for a general
election --- and the airside-workers scheme is meeting massive
resistance from all the stakeholders which makes its deployment next
year unlikely --- it isn't going to.
The Labour Party's objective now is to beach the ship with the crew
alive, head for internment and hope to be repatriated to fight again
in the next war (the best price you can get on the next government
being Tory is 7-2 on). As things stand, about half of the cabinet
will lose their seats. Look at the spread betting market and
chortle. Then place your bets on the number of cabinet ministers to
go: seven to eleven is still only 13-8, and you can only get 10-3 on
twelve to sixteen.
ian
(*) I assumed shortly after the loss of the Glenrothes by-election
--- SNP 9-2 on, Labour 11-4 --- although Brown to step down in 2008 is
only 8-1; the differential in those prices implies that the market
doesn't think losing Glenrothes would necessarily be fatal.
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<html><body style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; =
-webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div><blockquote =
type=3D"cite"><div><blockquote type=3D"cite">be involved in) have =
scrapping the whole ID card programme as a manifesto commitment. =
The chances of the biometric of anyone bar non-EU citizens =
being present on documents before the government is voted out are =
approximately zero, and after Brown is packed off to Scotland never to =
be heard of again we can assume that ID cards are dead for a generation. =
We'll probably need to fight the battles again in about =
2020.<br></blockquote>This isn't being driven by elected =
people.</div></blockquote><br></div><div>Put the tinfoil hat away, or at =
least fold it into a nice beret.</div><div><br></div><div>This isn't =
some spooky, hidden change to the legal framework, capable of being =
nodded through and requiring no budget, which will upon enactment be =
invisible to the population at large. To get anywhere with ID =
cards will require an immense budget, primary legislation and the =
compliance of most of the UK population in something that will cost them =
time, money and aggravation for no benefit. It's not key escrow, =
or Phorm, or communications data retention by CPs, all of which will =
attract almost no attention, don't require primary legislation and =
transfer their costs to the private sector. It's the Poll Tax, =
but with no winners.</div><div><br></div><div>The abandonment of the =
scheme has been made a manifesto commitment by both major =
opposition parties and, I hear, has almost no support in the Labour =
Party at large. Certainly a party stooge who tried to spin =
positive on labourhome.org was laughed to scorn, and an obvious way to =
shoot the Tory fox of ``we'll fund it out of the ID card scheme money'' =
would be for Brown's replacement (*) to scrap the ID card, point out the =
money hasn't been spent yet and hole Cameron's budget below the =
waterline.</div><div><br></div><div>Elements in the civil service have =
been pushing for ID cards for generations, to the distaste of many =
politicians (see, for example, Peter Lilly's pitch at the LSE lo those =
many years ago, at which many of us were present). They found a =
receptive audience in the more authoritarian end of the Labour Party =
(one hesitates to say `tankies', but one can't help it). That =
element is now consigned to history, probably taking its party with it. =
There's no political will, or in fact active political =
opposition, in every credible post-2010 government or element of a =
government: Tory, LibDem, post-Brown Labour (think a Purnell government =
in 2018 would be so stupid?)</div><div><br></div><div>In the economic =
climate of the next decade, no party is going to spend billions on a =
scheme whose benefits won't show up at the ballot box for at least ten =
years, if ever, and whose lack of definition, scope and objectives means =
it's certain to be a failure even if it's deployed, which it won't be. =
Yes, there are people in Home Office who want it. They had =
their chance, and had they managed to produce a workable scheme in 2001 =
they might have managed it, too. But an ID card scheme would lose =
Labour seats in urban areas (anywhere with a large ethnic minority =
population, anywhere with a large young population) and rural areas =
(anywhere that people would need to travel to register) that they simply =
can't afford to lose. If it were going to happen, it would have =
happened: as there's no general scheme for ID cards for UK citizens =
prior to the last possible date for a general election --- and the =
airside-workers scheme is meeting massive resistance from all the =
stakeholders which makes its deployment next year unlikely --- it isn't =
going to.</div><div><br></div><div>The Labour Party's objective now is =
to beach the ship with the crew alive, head for internment and hope to =
be repatriated to fight again in the next war (the <a =
href=3D"http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/specials/politics/uk/next-=
general-election/most-seats">best price you can get</a> on the next =
government being Tory is 7-2 on). As things stand, about half of =
the cabinet will lose their seats. Look at the <a =
href=3D"http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/09/24/browns-s=
peech-barely-moves-the-betting-markets/">spread betting =
market</a> and chortle. Then <a =
href=3D"http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=3Dgo_type&category=3DSPEC=
IALS&disp_cat_id=3D31&ev_class_id=3D33&ev_type_id=3D10158&=
ev_oc_grp_ids=3D64931&bir_index=3D">place your bets</a> on the =
number of cabinet ministers to go: seven to eleven is still only 13-8, =
and you can only get 10-3 on twelve to =
sixteen.</div><div><br></div><div>ian</div><div><br></div><div>(*) &n=
bsp;I assumed shortly after the loss of the Glenrothes by-election --- =
SNP 9-2 on, Labour 11-4 --- although Brown to step down in 2008 is only =
8-1; the differential in those prices implies that the market doesn't =
think losing Glenrothes would necessarily be =
fatal.</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><d=
iv><br></div><div><br></div></body></html>=
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