cyber-"terrorism"?

[Ian Johnson]

Casper Dik wrote:
(quoting someone) 
> >> In one particularly nasty case, the maternity clinic system at a
> >> Sheffield hospital miscalculated mothers' ages and failed to order
> >> amnios for mothers in the highest-risk group. When the bug was
> >> discovered, 150-odd women - by now well advanced in pregnancy - had to
> >> be recalled for urgent amnios.
> >
> >> At least four Down's babies were born as a direct result of the Y2K bug,
> >> and at least two women had to have distressingly late terminations.

> I am surprised that the system relies on computers calculating the
> mother's age.  Surely people are aware of ages and the associated
> risks.  I'd assume that people over that age having children would know
> and ask the doctor for the test.

> How many people did have an amnio even though they weren't flagged
> by the computer because they knew they better have one?

Way off topic, but anyway...

I've not idea of the accuracy of the Sheffield story but....

Amnio is an invasive procedure with a risk of harm (usually miscarriage)
of
(if memory serves) around 3%. This varies with the individual
consultants
skill.

In deciding whether to recommend amnio, medics base there decision on
their 
assessment of the risk of Downs syndrome in that individual pregnancy.

This is done through computing odds based on the womans age / blood
chemistry.
Not generally available on the NHS, nuchal translucency measurement
together
with the above, (accurate estimation of the age of the pregnancy) and
comparison 
with the fetal medicine foundations statistical database is generally
more accurate.

On this basis a statistical risk is calculated.  "High risk" generally
means
amnio is statistically a lower risk.  I believe these computations are 
generally done by computer, and as they involve date based arithmetic
would
have been vulnerable potentially to Y2K.

As the choice of amnio depends on a comparison of risk, this is not as
clear
a decision as it appears in this thread.

regards,

Ian

-- 
Ian Johnson                             Tel  : +44 117 965 6261 x3167
Faculty of CSM, UWE Bristol		Email: irj@acm.org
Frenchay Campus, Bristol. BS16 1QY. UK.