Crypto Blamed for US terrorist attack - World Exclusive

[Dave Bird]

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In article <97673.1000375321@thrush.ravenbrook.com>, Nick Barnes
<Nick.Barnes@pobox.com> writes
>At 2001-09-12 16:23:19+0000, "Owen Lewis" writes:
>
>> The acts yesterday in NY, Washington and near Pittsburgh were purposefully
>> designed to kill very large numbers of people. The final death toll may
>> never be known with certainty but there is already reason to suppose that it
>> will not be less then 50,000.
>
>This is a considerable overestimate; the true figure seems likely to
>be between 5K and 10K.  Even on Tuesday there weren't any level-headed
>estimates higher than 20K.  I believe that the official unofficial
>estimate of the WTC toll is now 5-6K.
>
>> Perhaps only those with experience of military operations will fully
>> appreciate the level of planning, discipline, expertise, coordination and
>> self-sacrifice required to conduct yesterday's operation so successfully. It
>> was a carefully organised and well run operation designed as an act of war.
>> It is reasonable to assume that one or more 'terrorist' groups were involved
>> in the implementation of the plan but it is improbable that such a plan
>> could be brought to fruition without the knowledge of it and connivance in
>> it by some state's government.
>
>I see no evidence of this whatsoever.  There seem to have been between
>10 and 20 hijackers actually on the planes (3-5 on each: the reports
>from the Pennsylvania flight strongly indicate 3).  Given the total
>lack of prior intelligence, it seems more likely to me that this was a
>mid-sized terrorist group, with no more than 500 active members.

 I heard media reports of 18, two teams of four and two of five. I would
 think not more than 35 or 40 were involved in support roles (apart from
 anything else how could you keep it secure?) though a lot of money 
 would be involved.  

>Undoubtedly using crypto to communicate, FWIW.

 I'm puzzled: almost certainly to co-ordinate such a thing requires
 voice contact, and voice crypto is still rare so it would stand out
 like a sore thumb.  I'm not sure how the comms for such a thing
 would be managed without creating detectable traffic.  Face to face
 in a friendly country to set it up, coded signals in a public area
 to report back to base, code-words in phone conversations or letters
 for the rest.  Nothing as obvious as sending PGP email from A to B.
>
>The key ingredient is pilot expertise.  There are thousands of
>type-qualified 757/767 pilots, and experts are suggesting that these
>need not even have been type-qualified: the 757 and 767 are famously
>easy to fly and this flying, at least at the WTC, was not hard: ideal
>weather conditions, no ATC, no takeoff, no landing.  The flying at DC
>was more demanding.  The most we can say is that they were probably
>commercial airline pilots.  Maybe not even that.  Possibly one real
>pilot having trained a number of others on a sim ($100-$200/hour).

 One or more  of them came into the USA, did basic pilot training at 
 one pilot school in Florida,  and then went on to do  jet training. 
 Presumably they selected people with the will and the aptitude, tried
 them out on one supervised flying lesson, then shipped them to America. 
>
>I cannot imagine any government anywhere conniving at this.  Iraq?
>Libya?  North Korea?  Surely even the Taleban are not so foolish.

 Iraq, Iran, Libya because they feel they have been directly attacked.
 Syria over Israel.  The Taliban to make themselves look big, though
 less likely because they are an inward-looking group.  I fear they
 may have concealed the transfer of funds rather carefully.

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