Legislating for the Long Term?

[Ross Anderson]

Brian wrote:

> CA products yes, but third party CA services don't seem to make much
> business sense (except, possibly, in one or two specialised areas).

If you look at the uptake of just about any technology it follows two
phases: replacing existing mechanisms, followed (often a generation
later) by the discovery of new possibilities.

For example, the railway companies started out in the mid-19th century
by replacing the more profitable stagecoach routes; a generation
later, they had discovered the market appeal of suburbs and the huge
profits that could be made by coupling residential housing development
with commuter lines feeding the growing middle class into the cities.

A prudent man will assume the same model as businesses and professions
go electronic. First generation systems will either involve no third
party at all - they will support a direct relationship between bank
and customer, between doctor and patient etc - or will be electronic
versions of existing directory services such as the Medical Register.

This raises the question of why governments should rush to get into
the directory publishing business, just when they are trying to divest
all their non-core assets. Directory publishers have done just fine
for centuries and have never in the past been considered to be a core
business of government. Surely this can't be the logical consequence
of the invention of public key cryptography?

Ross