Inaccurate study quoting, Re: anti-crypto rhetoric (Ellison,

[Jeffrey Goldberg]

On Sat, 4 Apr 1998, T Bruce Tober wrote:

> In message <memo.19980404064141.49313A@hcorn.compulink.co.uk>, Peter
> Sommer <hcorn@cix.co.uk> writes

> >There is simply too much unsupported  "there is a rumor.."  "we have also
> >heard..."
> 
> All of which is typical of Joe McCarthy and his progenuy. He roamed the
> states holding up a piece of paper, long piece of paper, claiming "I
> have here a list of communists in the State Dept."

I think this is a very good comparison.  I believe that another
similarity (though I can't cite anything to back it up!), is that
the numbers kept changing.  McCarthy kept on reporting different
numbers.  Once these things get started, they can be very hard
to stamp out.  In a completely different domain, linguists
have finally managed stem the tide of "n Eskimo words for 'snow'"
(where n > 40).  But it is a slow battle.  (Anyone who wants
the real, but more complex, story should write to me personally
or check the sci.lang FAQ).

Denning reports a more than four fold increase (from something like 5 to
20) from one year to the next.  But surely a mathematician should check
whether that represents a significant increase (with numbers so small;
"four fold" may be over dramatising the case).  McCarthy was probably
innumerate.  Denning certainly isn't.  (I must confess, again, that
I haven't been following in careful detail, so I am not certain whether
Denning is an author of the document she quoted in her recent posting.) 

-j

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